Saturday, January 08, 2005

NFL PLAYOFFS!!!

I love the NFL Playoffs. Just fun and exciting and football for 3 consecutive weekends. 3 of my favorite things. There are periods of the year that I am typically at my least productive at work: January, the first week of the NCAA Hoops tournament and the week between Christmas and New Years. I try to limit my playoff surfing to lunch time and the last hour of work. But that's like trying to limit myself to one Krispy Kreme doughnut. it just ain'[t happening.

Anyway, my prdictions for the playoffs from October were OK, but nothing stellar. In the AFC, I predicted Denver to win the West and Baltimore to get the other Wild Card. Turned out San Diego won the West and Denver got the WC. Real close. By the way, San Diego is exponentially better than anyone predicted. In the NFC, I predicted Minnesota to win the Central and Detroit and Carolina to win the Wild Cards. That was way off, with Minnesota getting a WC behind Green Bay in the Central and Detroit stinking down the stretch and the Rams sneaking in.

So now I will try for some predictions. A few things to bear in mind with the playoffs. First, head coaches are very important. This will influence several picks. Second, QB are also very important, but not from a throwing the ball stand point. From a game management stand point. And lastly, you're insane if you think I'm picking aganst the Steelers.

In the wild cards today we have Seattle vs St. Louis and San Diego vs the Jets. That first game is just scary bad. Neither of these teams deserve to be here for the way they've played all year. St. Louis has beat Seattle twice this year already. You hear a lot of people say it's really tough to beat a team 3 times in a year. Bull Shit! I take the Rams. As for the other game, if the Jets had any semblance of a passing game, I'd take them. San Diego has benefitted from a super easy schedule, but they've played hard enough all year to deserve to win one in front of the home crowd.

On Sunday we have Indy vs Denver and Green Bay vs Minnesota. On that first game, don't get fooled by the season Peyton Manning has had. He's still Peyton Manning and he still is a liability in the Palyoffs. But not this week. Indy wins easily. The other game features a match up between the NFL head coaching equivalents of Laurel and Hardy. Seriously, they're both morons. In Green Bay, Sherman has no idea that he has one of the best running backs in the league. he thinks he has Brett Farve from 1998 not from 2004. But they'll find a way to win in spite of themselves because that's what they've been doing the last 2 months. More than I can say for Minnesota.

Next weekend, in the AFC, you will see the Steelers vs San Diego and the Patriot vs Indy. I have no respoect for San Diego on the road in January and there is no way Peyton Manning will ever beat the New England Patriots as long as the Linebackers are healthy and they have their current head coach. EVER. That will set up a really tough game in Pittsburgh the following week between the 2 best teams in the league. Luckily, I think the Steelers know how to beat them. You absolutely, positively HAVE to blitz Tom Brady. The Steelers lost in 2001 because they didn't trust their secondary. This year, they have that trust, so they will be blitzing their brains out. If they can get even a 1 point lead, there's no way New England will be able to come back.

In the NFC we will see Philly vs the Rams and Atlanta vs Green Bay. The Rams don't actually have a head coach. That don't even have a Steward a la Gondor (remember the guy that goes crazy and is about to set his own son on fire?). They have Rainman, except Rainman knows when Whoppner's on. Mike Martz barely knows when his team is playing football. In the other game, I don't like the Atlanta Offense. You can't have a team so dependent on one player. But I like Green Bay's Defense and their head coach even less. So Atlanta wins by default. And teams that get to the Championship game by default don't make it to the Super Bowl, no matter how banged up the other team is.

In the Super Bowl, we all know who I like to win. But I really don't feel comfortable giving reasons or breaking it down. That will have to wait until February.

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